NHC Tuesday 5am Report On Dorian




…DORIAN STILL NEARLY STATIONARY BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD LATER THIS MORNING…
…CONTINUES TO POUND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND…

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas and from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from north of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet, Florida. and from north of Ponte Vedra Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet, Florida and from north of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from north of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach, Florida, and Lake Okeechobee.

Devastating hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama Island. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida by this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area beginning Wednesday. In South Florida, tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area through today, and are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area through this morning. Along the coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia, tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Wednesday.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Lantana, Florida to the Savannah River. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from north of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana, Florida, and from the Savannah River to South Santee River, South Carolina.

Hurricane Dorian is centered as of 5 a.m. EDT about 35 miles (55 km) northeast of Freeport, Grand Bahama Island, and about 105 miles (170 km) east of West Palm Beach, Florida.
Dorian is stationary just north of Grand Bahama Island. A slow north-northwestward motion is expected to begin this morning. A turn to the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn to the north-northeast Thursday morning. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island today. The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late today through Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). A wind gust to 61 mph (98 km/h) was recently reported at Juno Beach Pier, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).

A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands today.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the U.S East coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Lantana FL to South Santee River SC…4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach FL to Lantana FL…2 to 4 ft

Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday:
Northwest Bahamas…Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm
totals over 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas…5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula north of West Palm Beach through Georgia…3 to 6 inches, isolated 9 inches.
Southeast Virginia…2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

The next advisory will be issued by NHC at 11 a.m. EDT with an intermediate advisory at 8 a.m. EDT – www.hurricanes.gov




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