Rain from Erika on the way: what you need to know – 08/31/15




Southeastern United States Radar, 9:45 a.m. EST on August 31, 2015. Tropical Wave Erika is affecting South Florida.
Southeastern United States Radar, 9:45 a.m. EST on August 31, 2015. Tropical Wave Erika is affecting South Florida.
Southeastern United States Radar, 9:45 a.m. EST on August 31, 2015. Tropical Wave Erika is affecting South Florida.

Erika may not technically be a Tropical Storm any more (it’s now called a tropical wave), but its remnants are soaking Florida in very heavy rain. Over four inches of rain has been reported in some areas.

As of Monday morning, meteorologists with the National Weather Service in Tallahassee are predicting that the remnants of Erika will largely stay east of Southwest Georgia and the Tallahassee area. However, the forecast discussion says there is a chance that Erika could shift toward Tallahassee, resulting in a greater chance of rain for our area. The highest rain chances were placed along a line from Apalachicola, Fla., to Tallahassee, Fla., to Valdosta, Ga. and areas southeast of that. The rain is expected to come into our region on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Chance of rain all week in Southwest Georgia as we get ready for Labor Day

Here is the current forecast for Southwest Georgia through Thursday:
Monday: A 10 percent chance of showers after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. North northeast wind around 5 mph.
Monday Night: A 10 percent chance of showers before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 100. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph.
Tuesday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 93. Calm wind becoming east southeast around 5 mph.
Wednesday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74.
Thursday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 91.

View more weather info and see a live local radar at sowegalive.com/weather

Hurricane Fred marching toward Carribean

Hurricane Fred 5 day forecast track, from the National Weather Service as of August 31, 2015
Hurricane Fred 5 day forecast track, from the National Weather Service as of August 31, 2015

Meanwhile, Hurricane is drenching the Cape Verde Islands, west of Africa. Fred is actually projected to weaken back down to a tropical storm by Wednesday, as it continues a track towards the Caribbean. Here is the latest advisory on Hurricane Fred from the National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
800 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015

...HURRICANE FRED BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 23.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF RABIL IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SE OF RIBEIRA BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Verde Islands

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fred was located
near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 23.5 West. Fred is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue through Tuesday.  On the forecast track,
the center of Fred is expected to pass near or over the northwestern
Cape Verde Islands later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is expected through early tonight
while Fred moves through the Cape Verde Islands.  Gradually
weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue spreading
across the Cape Verde Islands today.  Hurricane conditions are
occurring over portions of the easternmost Cape Verde Islands and
are expected to spread northwestward over portions of the northern
and northwestern Cape Verde Islands later today.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than indicated in this advisory,
and in some elevated locations can be even greater.

STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
in areas of onshore winds in the Cape Verde Islands.  Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

RAINFALL:  Fred is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 6 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 10 inches.  These rains could produce life-
threatening flash flooding and mudslides.



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